Concept
climate of opinion
The perception of which opinion is widespread, rising or in favour around one on an issue. In the spiral of silence, this perception rather than the real distribution shapes behaviour.
The climate of opinion (Turkish sources use, besides the main term “fikir iklimi”, also “kanaat iklimi”, “düşünce iklimi” and “görüş iklimi”) is the perception of which opinions are widespread on an issue in one’s surroundings, and which are rising or falling. In the spiral of silence what is decisive is not the real distribution of opinions but the distribution people perceive; the climate can be misperceived, but that perception still steers behaviour.
As Polat reports, there are two ways to learn the climate: direct observation in one’s own living space and indirect observation through the eyes of the media. On issues unrelated to one’s personal circle, the impression of the climate of opinion is gained largely through the media. That is why the media are, in the theory, a key actor shaping the direction and speed of the climate.
The climate is measured with two questions: the present climate (“what do most people think?”) and the future forecast (“what will happen in a year’s time?”). According to Noelle-Neumann, when the present climate and the future forecast do not match, willingness to speak depends more on the trend, that is, on the future forecast.
Example
A person who keeps meeting news reports that have stressed the same opinion for years on an issue may come to feel that this opinion is “everyone’s”; that impression is the perception of the climate that affects whether they will say their own different opinion openly. (Hypothetical example.)